(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs forecast the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver three quarter point interest rate cuts this year and expects heightened recession risks amid tariff uncertainty, ahead of clarity on President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan.

The Wall Street brokereage now sees consecutive cuts in July, September, and November, compared to its previous forecast of two cuts in June and December, it said in a note on Sunday.

It anticipates a 15 percentage point increase in tariff rates, a scenario previously considered a "risk-case" but now seems more probable with Trump’s upcoming reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday.

The brokerage says the comments from White House officials suggest there is tolerance for short-term economic weakness to achieve their policy goals.

It now sees a 12-month recession probability of 35%, compared to its previous estimate of 20%.

The Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50% in March, with Chair Jerome Powell noting "unusually elevated" uncertainty and challenges in economic projections due to recent policy changes by the Trump administration.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, increased 0.3% in February after advancing by an unrevised 0.3% in January, data showed on Friday.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its fourth-quarter gross domestic product, or GDP, growth forecast to 1.0% and raised its year-end unemployment rate forecast to 4.5%.

"We continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed," it added.