Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that the upside risks to its $4,000 per ounce mid-2026 gold forecast have grown, highlighting two factors that could push prices beyond that level.

Gold has rallied 14% since late August to around $3,865, leaving it up 47% year-to-date. The breakout reflects renewed buying from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), central banks, and, to a lesser extent, speculative investors.

The first catalyst that could push the bullion above the $4,000 threshold is the limited role of speculative positioning in the recent rally, Goldman analyst Daan Struyven said.

Struyven argues that speculation “explains only a modest 1pp of the 14% rally since August 26, and has not increased over the last three weeks.” That suggests the surge has come from more stable long-term buyers, leaving scope for additional price gains if speculative flows eventually pick up.

The second factor is the strong surprise in Western ETF demand. Holdings rose by 109 tonnes in September, far above Goldman’s model prediction of 17 tonnes based on falling U.S. interest rates.

Struyven said this shows that the “key upside risk” it has been flagging—private investors diversifying more significantly into gold—“seems to be realizing for now.”

Because gold ETFs remain small compared with developed-market bond markets, even a minor shift in allocations away from fixed income could drive a large further increase in gold prices, the analyst added.

Goldman reiterated that gold is its “highest-conviction long commodity recommendation,” citing structurally higher central bank demand, upside risks from private sector diversification, and attractive hedging properties in market downturns.

The analysts see additional support in scenarios of global growth slowdowns or rising concerns about developed-market macro policy.