Deutsche Bank lifts its 2026 gold price forecast, citing resilient investor demand, strong central-bank buying, and limited supply response.

The bank now expects gold to average $4,450/oz in 2026, up from a previous forecast of $4,000/oz, with a projected trading range of $3,950–4,950/oz. A high of $4,950/oz would sit about 14% above current December 2026 futures, it said.

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The upgrade reflects a combination of stabilising short-term flows, constructive technical indicators and supply-demand trends that continue to lean in gold’s favour.

“The positive structural picture shows inelastic demand from central banks and ETF investment diverting supply from the jewellery market. Also, overall growth in demand outpaces supply,” analyst Michael Hsueh said in a note.

Gold’s outperformance relative to the U.S. dollar and its unusually wide 2025 trading range—its largest since 1980—also underpin the constructive setup heading into 2026.

Hsueh expects official sector buying to rebound next year after a slight dip in 2025. He cites reserve-manager surveys showing the highest share of central banks planning to increase gold allocations in years, with one respondent calling gold the “ultimate protection against black swan tail risk events.”

Third-quarter official demand was the third highest on record in real-dollar terms despite elevated prices.

On the investment side, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returned to net accumulation this year after four years of outflows. Hsueh argues that the recent rapid but brief liquidation phase likely “suggests that the $3,900/oz support will hold,” supported further by seasonally strong early-year buying patterns.

Supply is expected to rise only modestly in 2026, with mined output at 3,715 tonnes. Hsueh points to lagging production responses, recycling that remains below historical peaks and conservative long-term price assumptions within the mining sector.

The analyst notes that many large mining projects still use planning price assumptions well below market levels, reinforcing a slow supply elasticity even after significant price gains. A significant supply disruption at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine is also expected to offset new project additions.

Potential risks to the outlook include a deeper equity-market correction, fewer expected Fed rate cuts, or a sharp slowdown in official buying.