NEW YORK (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund is encouraged by the progress in discussions between Zambia and its official creditors, and an agreement could be reached "within a few days," the fund said in a statement on Tuesday.

"We are very encouraged by the significant progress being made in discussions between official creditors and Zambia on a potential debt treatment," a spokesperson for the fund wrote.

"We expect an agreement could be reached within a few days, which would allow the Executive Board consider the first review of the Fund-supported program within a few weeks."

The IMF said in early April that the next $188 million payout from a $1.3 billion support loan to Zambia was contingent on the government's reaching an agreement with its creditors.

Zambia's hopes of restructuring about $12.8 billion of external debt have been hampered by the concerns of its main creditors about the required scale of relief.

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will unveil a major package for Ukraine, including $3 billion of additional guarantees to unlock World Bank lending, on the first day of a summit aimed at spurring efforts to rebuild the country on Wednesday.

At the beginning of the two-day Ukraine recovery conference in London, Sunak will outline a package which will also include 240 million pounds ($306 million) of bilateral assistance and an expansion of British International Investment in Ukraine.

Britain has been one of the main backers of Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February last year, and Sunak hopes the conference will cement London's standing while encouraging the private sector to do more to help rebuild.

"So, together with our allies we will maintain our support for Ukraine's defence and for the counter offensive, and we'll stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes as they continue to win this war," Sunak will tell the conference, according to excerpts of his speech released by his office.

"I'm proud that today we're announcing a multi-year commitment to support Ukraine's economy, and over the next three years, we will provide loan guarantees worth $3 billion."

Ajay Banga, president of the World Bank Group, said the guarantees would allow it to continue to help "people rebuild their lives after devastation".

The United States is also expected to set out "a new, robust" assistance package for Ukraine on Wednesday.

After more than a year of war in Ukraine, Sunak hopes the conference will encourage the private sector to use its resources to help speed Ukraine's reconstruction, but officials will also have to wrestle with the issue of offering some kind of insurance against war damage and destruction.

His office said he would also launch the London Conference Framework for War Risk Insurance at the summit and that some major companies had already signed up to the so-called Ukraine Business Compact, a statement of support for Ukraine's recovery.

Ukraine is seeking up to $40 billion to fund the first part of a "Green Marshall Plan" to rebuild its economy, including developing a coal-free steel industry, a senior Ukrainian official said before the conference.

The total bill will be huge, with Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations estimating in March that the cost was at $411 billion for the first year of the war. It could easily reach more than $1 trillion.

($1 = 0.7851 pounds)

LONDON (Reuters) - Pay awards by British employers remained the highest in more than 30 years in the three months to May, keeping pressure on the Bank of England which looks set to raise interest rates again on Thursday in a bid to tame high inflation.

Human resources data firm XpertHR said the median basic pay settlement in the three months to the end of May remained at 6%, matching the record increases seen in the five rolling quarters before but well below inflation which stood at 8.7% in April.

XpertHR has been tracking settlements since 1991.

Wednesday's data includes pay awards agreed in April, a key month for pay deals between employers and workers.

"Although inflation is beginning to fall as we enter the second half of this year, it still lies far ahead of pay rises, meaning employees will remain grappling with the effects of a real-terms pay cut," Sheila Attwood, senior content manager at XpertHR, said.

Consumer price inflation data for May is due to be published at 0600 GMT on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the pace of prices rises to have eased to 8.4%.

The BoE is concerned that price rises could be harder to tame if pay deals keep growing. It is expected to increase Bank Rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.75% on Thursday, its 13th hike in a row.

Official labour market figures last week showed stronger-than-expected wage growth in April.

XpertHR said employers continued to report skills shortages and issues with staff retention, despite some signs of easing labour market conditions.

By Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO (Reuters) - Business morale at big Japanese manufacturers edged up in June, staying in positive territory for a second straight month and reflecting a post-COVID economic recovery though uncertainty remains high amid slowing global growth, a Reuters poll showed.

Underlining the prospects for a service sector-led recovery, the non-manufacturers' index hovered near this year's high, the Reuters Tankan poll showed on Wednesday, bolstering the view that strong domestic demand may offset an export slowdown - a rare thing that would happen to export-reliant Japanese economy.

The monthly poll suggested there would be a steady recovery in business sentiment in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) closely watched tankan quarterly survey due next on July 3.

The Reuters poll found manufacturers' mood was expected to rise over the coming three months, and service-sector morale would hover above +20.

In the Reuters poll of 493 large companies, of which 232 responded on condition of anonymity, many firms cited the post-COVID rebound in demand as a positive factor, while risks stemmed from overseas economies.

"We can expect a recovery in consumption and inbound demand as the coronavirus pandemic has calmed down," a manager of a paper/pulp firm wrote in the survey, noting that business conditions had turned for the better.

"A prolonged war in Ukraine and intensifying trade frictions between Japan and China have curbed capital expenditures at our clients while competition has heated up with overseas rivals," wrote a machinery maker's manager, who called business conditions "not so good."

The sentiment index for manufacturers stood at +8, up 2 points from the previous month, led by textiles/papers, oil refinery/ceramics, food processing and auto industry, according to the survey, conducted from June 7-16.

The manufacturers' index was up 11 points compared with three months ago. The index is expected to rise to +13 in September.

The service-sector index slipped one point from May to +24 in June, led by information/communications and transport/utilities.

Compared with three months ago, the service-sector index was up three points. The index is expected to drop two points to +22 in September.

The Reuters Tankan indexes are calculated by subtracting the percentage of pessimistic respondents from optimistic ones. A negative figure means pessimists outnumber optimists.

By Tim Hepher, Joanna Plucinska and Aditi Shah

PARIS/DELHI (Reuters) -Europe's Airbus secured a historic deal on Monday involving the most jets ever bought by a single airline, with an order for 500 narrowbody jets from Indian budget carrier IndiGo on the opening day of the Paris Airshow.

The multibillion-dollar deal eclipses Air India's combined purchase of 470 jets earlier this year as India's two largest carriers plan for a sharp expansion in regional travel demand.

IndiGo's order for A320neo-family jets follows months of negotiations first reported by Reuters. Industry sources said in advance of the Le Bourget event that a 500-plane deal was close.

"This is just the beginning, there's more going forward. With the growth of India (and) the growth of the Indian aviation market ... this is the right time for us to place this order," IndiGo Chief Executive Pieter Elbers told a news conference.

The aircraft will be delivered between 2030 and 2035.

Efforts by Indian carriers to keep pace with the world's fastest-growing aviation market, serving the largest population, have sent industry records tumbling even though manufacturers are struggling to meet output goals.

Indian carriers now have the second-largest order book, with an over 6% share of the industry backlog, behind only the United States, according to a June 1 report by Barclays (LON:BARC).

But some analysts have expressed concern that airlines could be over-ordering jets in pursuit of the same passengers.

After signing the IndiGo deal, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said it was premature to start thinking about narrowbody jet production rates higher than the planned 75 per month.

Airbus has faced problems in rebuilding production after the pandemic and has pushed back the mid-decade target to 2026, but Faury said supply disruption was a relatively short-term issue compared with the delivery schedules starting next decade.

Airbus has said it is considering developing a successor to the A320neo between 2035 and 2040, meaning IndiGo is likely to have negotiated the option to switch to any new model or cancel late deliveries rather than be leapfrogged, analysts said.

IndiGo, which accounts for nearly 60% of the Indian domestic market, is keeping Airbus as its supplier of single-aisle jets to squeeze out further economies of scale. But it has not yet decided which engine supplier to use for the latest order.

It switched supplier from Pratt & Whitney to GE-Safran venture CFM International about four years ago following issues with engines' durability.

IndiGo still has almost 480 jets left in the Airbus pipeline from previous orders. Elbers said the latest order would allow the airline to double in size.

IndiGo continues to hold separate talks with Airbus and rival Boeing (NYSE:BA) for 25 widebody planes, which could either be Airbus A330neos or Boeing 787 jets, sources have said.

Elbers declined to comment on any further plane orders.

By Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy

(Reuters) - Asian bonds attracted their highest monthly foreign inflows in about two years in May, boosted by hopes of less aggressive monetary tightening measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Foreigners purchased a net $10.1 billion worth of bonds in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand, marking their biggest monthly purchases since June 2021, data from regulatory authorities and bond market association showed.

"Asia ex-China (bonds) could benefit as the Fed approaches the end of its tightening cycle, notwithstanding residual uncertainty on the terminal rate," said Fiona Lim, senior fx strategist at Maybank.

"This is especially in light of an arguably resilient macro backdrop where services sectors continue to hold up in most countries."

While the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates without change, deviating from 10 consecutive rate hikes, it indicated the likelihood of two small rate hikes by year-end to address inflation concerns.

Analysts also noted that investors were encouraged by signs that regional economies had reached their peak inflation levels, leading to anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks to stimulate economic growth.

South Korean bonds attracted net purchases of $8.2 billion, the highest since June 2021.

Khoon Goh, head of Asia Research at ANZ, said the Bank of Korea is perceived to be mulling potential rate cuts towards the end of the year, boosting the appeal for their bonds.

Malaysia and Indonesian bonds drew foreign inflow worth $652 million and $500 million, respectively, while India and Thai bonds got about $400 million each in the last month.

Maybank's Lim said the disappointment over China's weaker-than-expected data in May, alongside U.S.-China tensions, could also have spurred a re-allocation of bond flows out of China into other Asian countries.

Although foreign demand for Chinese bonds slightly rebounded in May, the percentage of foreign holdings as part of total outstanding Chinese government bonds remained at 8.3%, the lowest since July 2019, according to a Barclays (LON:BARC) report.

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's unemployment rate needs to rise to help contain inflation and avoid higher interest rates and a deep recession, a top central banker warned on Tuesday, after data showed little loosening in a still drum-tight labour market.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Michelle Bullock said the jobless rate would need to rise to about 4.5% from the current rate of 3.6% to bring the economy back into balance, a rate still well below pre-pandemic levels.

"Our goal is to return the labour market back to a level more consistent with full employment ... We think this can be achieved if employment and the economy more generally grow at a below trend pace for a while," said Bullock at the Ai Group in Newcastle.

The RBA has already raised interest rates by 400 basis points to an 11-year high of 4.1%, including a surprise hike earlier this month out of fear that inflation was becoming entrenched.

Indeed, Bullock also warned that if inflation were to become entrenched in people's expectations, that would mean higher rates and a larger rise in unemployment.

"A deep and long-lasting recession would be likely, which would mean a substantial rise in the unemployment rate."

The RBA has projected inflation - which was running at about 7% - would return to the top of the bank's target range of 2-3% by mid-2025, but warned risks are on the upside amid concerns about low productivity, fast rising labour costs, and stickiness in services inflation.

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -China cut its lending benchmarks on Tuesday in the first such easing in 10 months, as authorities seek to shore up a slowing recovery in the world's second-largest economy, with more stimulus expected.

The latest monetary easing comes as China's post-pandemic recovery shows signs of losing steam after some initial momentum in the first quarter of this year.

The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.55%, while the five-year LPR was cut by the same margin to 4.20% from 4.30%.

A Reuters poll of 32 market participants showed all respondents expected reductions to both rates.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered short- and medium-term policy rates last week, signalling it is about to embark on another round of loosening in monetary settings in a push to rev up the recovery.

The medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate serves as a guide to the LPR and markets mostly see the medium-term rate as a precursor to any changes to the lending benchmarks.

"These cuts will lower the cost of new loans, as well as interest payments on existing loans," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics.

"That should offer some modest support to economic activity. But we think it is unlikely to drive a sharp acceleration in credit growth, given weak credit demand."

China's cabinet met on Friday to discuss measures to spur growth in the economy and pledged more policy support.

"More policy measures may be rolled out separately, including but not limited to a 25 basis point cumulative cut to the LPR by the year-end, and property-easing measures to cut payment ratios or mortgage rates, as well as some form of consumption support," analysts at BofA global research said in a note.

"Such marginal easing will probably help prevent growth from slowing sharply, but will unlikely offer a strong boost to reverse the growth slippage in the near future," they said, downgrading their forecasts for China's economic growth outlook for this year to 5.7% from 6.3% previously.

Several global investment banks cut their 2023 gross domestic product growth forecasts for China after May data showed the recovery was faltering.

The LPR, which banks normally charge their best clients, is set by 18 designated commercial banks who submit proposed rates to the central bank every month.

Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. China last cut both LPRs in August 2022 to boost the economy.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's headline inflation likely reached its lowest level in more than two years during the first half of June, but remained above the central bank's target, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, reinforcing bets the bank will keep the key rate steady longer.

The median forecast of 11 analysts sees annual headline inflation at 5.30%, its lowest level since the second half of March 2021, although it would still be significantly higher than the official target of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point.

In its most recent monetary policy announcement, the Bank of Mexico kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 11.25%, ending a nearly two-year rate-hike cycle, and vowed to keep it at that level for an extended period of time for inflation to converge to the target.

The core index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to have slid to 7.02% year-on-year, its lowest level since March 2022.

In the first half of June, consumer prices were forecast to have risen 0.15% compared to the previous two-week period, while the core measure likely grew 0.22%.

Mexico's statistics institute will release inflation data for the first half of June on Thursday.

By Walter Bianchi and Rodrigo Campos

BUENOS AIRES/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have a $44 billion dilemma, with the two sides set to meet for crunch talks to revamp the country's huge, wobbling debt deal, key to avoiding default on billions in looming debt payments.

The South American country, a serial defaulter that has struggled for years with inflation and currency crises, struck a $57 billion loan deal with the IMF in 2018, which failed and was replaced last year with a new $44 billion program.

But with net foreign currency reserves estimated to be in negative territory, hit by a major drought that sunk the key soy and corn harvests, Argentina is at risk again of missing debt repayments, with $2.7 billion due to the fund this month alone.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa is expected in Washington as early as this week to try to unlock talks to accelerate IMF disbursements and ease economic targets attached to the deal, with investors and traders watching closely.

"The fund knows that Argentina is a problem, it is its main debtor, but it seems to me that the negotiation has stagnated. One does not see significant progress," said Ricardo Delgado of Argentine financial services firm Analytica.

In a sign of potential holds-ups, an economy ministry source said on Friday that Massa's trip, previously briefed to happen in the next few days, could be delayed depending on how virtual talks progressed.

"Until everything is sealed, no one travels. When everything is ready, they'll travel to put things on paper. And when everything is written, Massa will travel," the source said.

On the streets of Buenos Aires pressure is rising. Inflation has hit 114%, hurting salaries and spending power, reserves have tumbled and one-in-four people is in poverty, with many blaming - not for the first time - austerity linked to the IMF.

"We must change these economic policies, we must break with the dependence on the IMF," said Hugo Godoy, a union leader marching on Friday in Buenos Aires as part of protests against the government's handling of the economy and austerity.

"Some 43% of Argentines live below the poverty line and 4.5 million, 10% of the population, suffer from hunger," he said.

'DAMAGE CONTROL'

The government is hoping to bring forward over $10 billion in IMF disbursements scheduled for this year, though is reluctant to agree to tough austerity measures with an eye on October general elections where it faces likely defeat.

"Investors are paying real attention to signs from the IMF negotiations," said economist Gustavo Ber.

"Receiving fresh funds - or at least rescheduling disbursements and payments - would be crucial to reduce exchange and financial tensions at this stage."

Meanwhile Argentina has been rolling over local debt to push back peso-denominated repayments, has extended a currency swap line with China, and faces a wall of obligations with private foreign creditors next year.

The local debt exchanges and hopes of progress with the IMF have nudged up Argentina's dollar-denominated bonds from high-20 cents on the dollar in May to mid-30 cents now, though they remain mired in distressed territory.

And many worry that even sped-up IMF payouts won't solve Argentina's problems for long.

"Frontloading disbursements could be a 'damage control' solution until the end of the current government's term in December," the Institute of International Finance, a Washington-based banking trade group, said in a report.

Argentina got a hint of good news this week with monthly inflation cooling in May for the first time in half a year and coming in below analyst expectations, though it was still an eye-watering 7.8% for the month.

"Inflation continues to be very high and affects the entire economic scenario, but the fact that it has eased somewhat with respect to April helps to remove some pressure," an Argentine banker said, asking not to be named.

"It is like the sick patient with a fever that has gone down slightly. But the patient is still sick and still has a fever."